NFLXpost-close
Netflix, Inc.
$76.75$62.95$69.85
±9.9%8.5× normal
Stocks This Week
Oct 19 – Oct 23VIX 17.7, normalbreadth 30%put/call 0.89tape 25, risk off
Ten companies report this week. The options market is charging most for Netflix — priced to move 8.5× a normal day. Wednesday carries six of them.
The week ahead
expected movecolour = size vs a normal dayroutine under 4x a normal dayelevated 4–5.5xhigh 5.5–7xsevere 7–9xextreme 9x and up
Tuesday 10/203 reports
RTXpre-open
RTX Corporation
$203$184$194
±4.9%6× normal
GEpre-open
GE Aerospace
$333$295$314
±6.0%4.9× normal
Wednesday 10/216 reports
ABTpre-open
Abbott Laboratories
$110$98$104
±5.5%5.6× normal
DHRpre-open
Danaher Corporation
$239$210$224
±6.6%5.5× normal
IBMpost-close
International Business Machines Corporation
$260$224$242
±7.4%5.1× normal
Tpre-open
AT&T Inc.
$24.36$22.04$23.20
±5.0%4.5× normal
NEEpre-open
NextEra Energy, Inc.
$80.88$75.46$78.17
±3.5%4.2× normal
PMpre-open
Philip Morris International Inc
$210$192$201
±4.5%3.6× normal
Thursday 10/221 report
PGpre-open
Procter & Gamble Company (The)
$164$154$159
±3.2%3.9× normal
10 further companies were withheld from the grid — their at-the-money options were too thinly traded to price a move honestly. They appear in the desk sheet below, flagged thin, and are re-priced each weekday morning as open interest builds.
Sorted richest to cheapest: implied move over the median of past reactions. Exceededcounts past reactions larger than today's implied. Crush is front minus back IV in vol points. Skew is 25Δ put IV minus 25Δ call IV; positive means downside is bid. Past moves marked · are estimated from 10-Q filing dates; unmarked ones the pipeline graded itself.
| Ticker | Reports | Implied | Usually | Ratio | Exceeded | Past reactions | Front IV | Back IV | Crush | Skew | Straddle | ATM OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | Tue post | ±9.9% Sun ±9.6 | — | — | — | 128 | 48 | 80 pts | +10.0 | $6.90 K70 10-23 | 10511 | |
| CBthin | Tue post | ±6.3% Sun ±5.3 | — | — | — | 24 | 21 | 3 pts | +4.3 | $22.52 K355 11-20 | 214 | |
| RTX | Tue pre | ±4.9% Sun ±5.5 | — | — | — | 58 | 31 | 27 pts | -5.6 | $9.58 K195 10-23 | 531 | |
| ISRGthin | Tue post | ±7.8% | — | — | — | 103 | 46 | 57 pts | +6.9 | $34.00 K432.5 10-23 | 150 | |
| GE | Tue pre | ±6.0% | — | — | — | 67 | 38 | 29 pts | +1.6 | $18.67 K315 10-23 | 251 | |
| NEE | Wed pre | ±3.5% Sun ±4.0 | — | — | — | 45 | 27 | 18 pts | +7.1 | $2.71 K78 10-23 | 2339 | |
| METAthin | Wed post | ±10.6% Sun ±12.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $73.38 K695 10-21 | 28 | |
| T | Wed pre | ±5.0% Sun ±4.6 | — | — | — | 57 | 31 | 27 pts | +9.6 | $1.16 K23 10-23 | 9687 | |
| TSLAthin | Wed post | ±7.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $26.68 K372.5 10-23 | 4006 | |
| DHR | Wed pre | ±6.6% | — | — | — | 88 | 40 | 49 pts | -0.2 | $14.90 K225 10-23 | 342 | |
| PM | Wed pre | ±4.5% | — | — | — | 55 | 30 | 24 pts | +4.5 | $9.07 K200 10-23 | 437 | |
| SAPthin | Wed post | ±13.1% Sun ±7.0 | — | — | — | 94 | 42 | 52 pts | +12.8 | $30.00 K230 10-23 | 96 | |
| IBM | Wed post | ±7.4% Sun ±7.7 | — | — | — | 112 | 43 | 69 pts | +5.2 | $17.88 K242.5 10-23 | 831 | |
| ABT | Wed pre | ±5.5% | — | — | — | 71 | 32 | 39 pts | +5.7 | $5.78 K104 10-23 | 917 | |
| LRCXthin | Wed post | ±7.6% Sun ±8.4 | — | — | — | 108 | 60 | 48 pts | +3.0 | $20.02 K262.5 10-23 | 307 | |
| TMOthin | Wed pre | ±5.0% Sun ±6.4 | — | — | — | 72 | 37 | 35 pts | -4.4 | $34.17 K680 10-23 | 89 | |
| TXNthin | Wed post | ±7.7% Sun ±8.6 | — | — | — | 115 | 49 | 67 pts | -1.1 | $21.28 K277.5 10-23 | 147 | |
| PG | Thu pre | ±3.2% Sun ±3.7 | — | — | — | 55 | 22 | 33 pts | +10.1 | $5.07 K160 10-23 | 1713 | |
| UNPthin | Thu pre | ±4.2% Sun ±9.2 | — | — | — | 58 | 28 | 31 pts | -1.2 | $12.14 K287.5 10-23 | 58 | |
| AXPthin | Fri pre | ±4.4% Sun ±4.0 | — | — | — | 66 | 30 | 36 pts | +3.3 | $14.13 K317.5 10-23 | 235 |
Where money went
sectors, past weekXLE
Energy
+2.46%
XLU
Utilities
+1.10%
XLF
Financials
+0.41%
XLI
Industrials
-0.14%
XLV
Health Care
-0.46%
XLK
Technology
-2.94%
Rotation reads risk off.
How last week landed
week of October 124 of 15 moved further than the options market had priced.
Ticker
Priced
Actual
Result
TSM
±4.0%
-1.8%
contained
JPM
±3.6%
-0.9%
contained
JNJ
±3.8%
-5.7%
exceeded
BAC
±3.5%
-4.8%
exceeded
UNH
±6.8%
-0.2%
contained
MS
±3.8%
-2.8%
contained
GS
±4.5%
-0.2%
contained
WFC
±4.7%
-3.1%
contained
C
±4.0%
-5.6%
exceeded
SCHW
±4.1%
-2.7%
contained
PGR
±3.3%
-4.2%
exceeded
PLD
±3.7%
-2.7%
contained
BNY
±4.1%
+3.2%
contained
USB
±4.0%
+2.0%
contained
PNC
±3.8%
-0.4%
contained